Five days
from now the voters of New Jersey and Virginia will elect governors. Voters in
the 23rd district of New York and the 10th district of California will elect
new members of the House of Representatives to replace incumbents, a Republican
and a Democrat, who were appointed to positions in the Obama Defense and State
departments.
All four of
these constituencies voted for Barack Obama 51 weeks ago. Obama won 57 percent
of the vote in New Jersey, 53 percent (his national average) in Virginia, 52
percent in New York 23 and 65 percent in California 10.
Yet all of
this territory was once Republican. Suburb-dominated New Jersey voted 56
percent for George H.W. Bush in 1988. Southern-accented Virginia hadn't voted
for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. The last time the territory
covered by New York 23 elected a Democratic congressman was in 1870. And the
incumbent who is being replaced in California 10 won her seat by beating a
Republican in 1996.
In other
words, the 2009 contests are a reasonably fair test of the strength and
durability of the Democratic majority that Obama and his ticket-mates assembled
in 2008, a majority that was only made possible by gains in hitherto Republican
territory. It is also a test of the capacity of Republicans to regain turf they
have lost.
Yes, the
character of the individual candidates and local issues can make a difference.
But the basic issues in these four contests are reasonably congruent with the
national issues now being debated in Congress and this summer in town halls
across the nation.
The result
in Virginia is not much in doubt. Republican Bob McDonnell has campaigned on
transportation, education and taxes, and holds a wide lead in polls. Democrat
Creigh Deeds, though from a rural area, opted not to follow the rural strategy
that elected Democrat Mark Warner governor in 2001 and senator in 2008, but
instead sought to use cultural issues -- a 20-year graduate school thesis of
McDonnell's helpfully unearthed by The Washington Post -- to capture the big
majorities Democrats won in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington in
2005, 2006 and 2008.
It hasn't
worked. No one believes that a McDonnell victory will result in women being
expelled from their workplaces and sent back to their ironing boards. Bigger
things -- the size and scope of government -- are at stake this year.
In New
Jersey, things are murkier. Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's approval numbers are
stuck around 40 percent, but he has used his wealth to pummel Republican Chris
Christie with negative ads and hopes that independent Chris Daggett will steal
anti-Corzine votes from the Republican. If Corzine wins because he is perceived
to be the lesser of three evils, it will hardly be an endorsement of Democratic
policies.
The
situation in New York 23 is simply bizarre. Local Republican leaders nominated
an assemblywoman who has been endorsed by the ACORN-allied Working Families
Party and who backs the unions' card check bill. One of the Republicans passed
over was nominated by the Conservative Party and has picked up endorsements
from Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. He has raised money on the Internet and from
the anti-tax Club for Growth. He's now leading in two polls commissioned by his
supporters.
All of
which highlights, in exaggerated form, the distrust of tea party protesters for
Republican insiders and could result in a plurality for the Democrat. As
William Galston points out in his New Republic blog, during Obama's presidency
voters have been growing more conservative but remain disdainful of
Republicans.
The
California 10 results will come in last, and just about everyone will be
astonished if the Democrat, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, doesn't win in this San
Francisco Bay Area district. But many things are possible in special elections.
Both
parties will try to spin the results seven days from now. But one thing seems
clear. None of the Democrats seems likely to equal Obama's 2008 percentages in
these states or districts. None may even come close. But Republicans may find
it difficult to convert the increasing unease with Democratic policies into
Republican (or conservative) victories across the board.
Michael Barone is senior political
analyst for The Washington Examiner. To find out more about Michael Barone, and
read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the
Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2009 THE WASHINGTON
EXAMINER
DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM
Michael Barone's Bio
Michael Barone is senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
Posted
10-29-2009 12:38 AM
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